The low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles has the potential to become a Tropical Cyclone later today or tonight (Thursday 17th August 2017).
The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. The disturbance should move through the Windward Islands, with the center crossing our islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday 18th August.
This afternoon, an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the approaching area (disturbance). At 11:00 a.m, the center was near 13.1 N 54.1 W or 470 miles (760 km) east of SVG. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure of 1008 mb (29.77) inches.
Squally conditions, with moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain, and thunderstorm activity with gusty winds could move across Saint Vincent and the Grenadines this evening into Friday. Favourable upper level pattern across the islands could result in enhancement of this system which has a high (80-90%) chance of becoming a tropical storm as it crosses our area. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight into early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph/ 63 to 118 km/h), are possible across our area within the next 6 to 9 hours.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 - 5 inches (100 – 125 mm) can be expected, with higher amounts over mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Marine conditions are expected to become moderate to rough on Friday, with sea swells increasing to 2.0 m – 2.5 m (7 - 8 feet).
Instability is expected to linger Saturday into Sunday, with some showers as the second area of low pressure with a medium 50 - 60% chance for development, passes just north of the Lesser Antilles on a west-northwest track away from Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible across Saint Vincent and the Grenadines within 24 - 36 hours.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is now under Tropical Storm warning.